Run your own numbers.
Edit any input, compare against real Dubai market anchors, and stress-test the outcome through the three critical points of the last two decades.
Advanced Simulator — Editable Inputs
Change any number. The projection updates the coupon path, the principal-appreciation path (linked to a real Dubai reference asset), and the year-by-year total.
CAGR 2015→2025 9.98% · Property Finder Commercial + Colliers Dubai F&B/Beauty Report 2024
| Year | Annual coupon | Cumulative coupons | Principal appreciation | Total value | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | AED 58,750 | AED 58,750 | AED 249,416 | AED 2,808,166 | 12.3% |
| Y2 | AED 58,750 | AED 117,500 | AED 523,714 | AED 3,141,214 | 25.6% |
| Y3 | AED 58,750 | AED 176,250 | AED 825,379 | AED 3,501,629 | 40.1% |
| Y4 | AED 58,750 | AED 235,000 | AED 1,157,139 | AED 3,892,139 | 55.7% |
| Y5 | AED 58,750 | AED 293,750 | AED 1,521,998 | AED 4,315,748 | 72.6% |
How to read this. Coupons are the periodic partnership distributions (paid from the 40% blended margin, scaled by your fund share). Principal appreciation is the reference-asset CAGR applied to your capital — it approximates what a comparable Dubai operating business has actually done over the last decade. Total value is the sum of your principal (grown at the benchmark) plus all coupons received.
In 60 months your AED 2,500,000 becomes AED 2,793,750 — a 11.8% cumulative gain.
At a ticket of AED 2,500,000 the effective annual rate is 2.35% (0.20% per month). This tier sits mid-tier — larger cheques step closer to 4% monthly. Payout cadence (monthly) does not change the annual rate; it changes when cash reaches your account.
Against Dubai's operating hospitality benchmarks the return is defensible: 16 revenue lines average 40% blended margin, so a 2.35% coupon consumes roughly 0% of one line's monthly operating profit. Coverage ratio is comfortably above 1.5×, which is why the coupon is a fixed contractual obligation rather than a "best-effort" payout.
Over 60 months an S&P 500 position could earn more if markets stay bullish, but that return is variable and can be negative. Here the coupon is contractual, insulated from equity draw-downs.
Historical value + Forward NAV
Every Dubai project is valued two ways. What it earns today, and what it will be worth when delivered. We show both, side by side, so you compare apples to apples.
Value from realised (or currently-realisable) revenue and margin — the way an operating business is normally acquired.
At 100% utilisation the operating business generates 69M AED EBITDA per year. Applied against a 6× hospitality multiple (Knight Frank + JLL MENA reference), enterprise value is 415M AED — meaning each 1 AED of your participation is backed by 1.43 AED of running-business value today.
Value on delivery, discounted to today. Same logic Dubai off-plan real estate uses: "at handover this is worth X — lock it in at a discount now."
At full stabilisation in month 18 the 80-line operation generates 69M AED EBITDA. Applied against a 7× post-stabilisation multiple, enterprise value reaches 484M AED. Discounted at 14% WACC, that is worth 398M AED today. Each 1 AED of your participation locks in 1.61 AED of delivered-asset value — the same logic Dubai uses to price off-plan real estate.
Dubai Market Reference — Business Acquisition Prices
Historical anchor prices for the categories Elaris operates in. Each row is sourced from a public dataset — use it to sanity-check the fund's compounding narrative.
| Asset | 2015 | 2020 | 2023 | 2025 | 2026e | CAGR 15→25 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salon key-money — Jumeirah / Business Bay (mid-tier, 120–180 m²) turnkey acquisition | AED 380,000 | AED 520,000 | AED 760,000 | AED 950,000 | AED 1,050,000 | 9.6% | Bayut Business Listings + Dubai Economy licensing fees |
Salon key-money — Downtown / DIFC (premium, 200+ m²) turnkey acquisition | AED 850,000 | AED 1,150,000 | AED 1,700,000 | AED 2,200,000 | AED 2,450,000 | 10.0% | Property Finder Commercial + Colliers Dubai F&B/Beauty Report 2024 |
Fine-dining restaurant — Downtown (250 m², licensed) acquisition + fit-out | AED 2,400,000 | AED 3,100,000 | AED 4,200,000 | AED 5,400,000 | AED 5,950,000 | 8.4% | Colliers MENA Hospitality Outlook 2024 |
Specialty café — JLT / Marina (80–120 m²) turnkey acquisition | AED 420,000 | AED 580,000 | AED 780,000 | AED 970,000 | AED 1,060,000 | 8.7% | Bayut Café Listings + Dubai Municipality fees |
Day-spa — Palm / JBR (200 m², licensed) turnkey acquisition | AED 1,100,000 | AED 1,450,000 | AED 2,100,000 | AED 2,700,000 | AED 3,000,000 | 9.4% | Knight Frank Dubai Wellness Report 2024 |
Aesthetic clinic — Jumeirah (DHA licensed) turnkey acquisition | AED 1,800,000 | AED 2,400,000 | AED 3,400,000 | AED 4,400,000 | AED 4,900,000 | 9.3% | DHA licensing data + Colliers Dubai Healthcare 2024 |
Boutique fitness studio — Business Bay turnkey acquisition | AED 650,000 | AED 820,000 | AED 1,150,000 | AED 1,500,000 | AED 1,650,000 | 8.7% | Dubai SME Wellness Sector Brief 2024 |
Retail unit — Business Bay (avg. AED / ft²) AED per ft², freehold | AED 1,650 | AED 1,420 | AED 1,850 | AED 2,350 | AED 2,560 | 3.6% | Dubai Land Department transactions |
Retail unit — Downtown Dubai (avg. AED / ft²) AED per ft², freehold | AED 2,500 | AED 2,150 | AED 2,950 | AED 3,800 | AED 4,100 | 4.3% | Dubai Land Department transactions |
Gold — 24K per gram AED / gram | AED 133 | AED 220 | AED 240 | AED 320 | AED 340 | 9.2% | Dubai Gold & Jewellery Group daily fix |
S&P 500 index (illustrative, USD) index level | $2,060 | $3,230 | $3,970 | $5,950 | $6,400 | 11.2% | S&P Dow Jones Indices |
Note. Prices reflect turnkey acquisition of comparable operating assets (business + fit-out + licensing). Real-estate rows show freehold retail unit averages. CAGR is the compound annual growth between the two years. Verify each figure via the linked source before making an investment decision.
Dubai — Three Critical Points (3)
What would have happened to your capital if you entered just before each crisis. The Elaris pooled reserve absorbs a share of the drawdown before investor coupons drop to the stress floor.
The sharpest drawdown on record for personal services. 56% of independent salons/spas closed permanently. Survivors — helped by Expo 2020 (2021–22) and record tourism — grew ~92% above 2019 peak revenue. The pooled fund would have absorbed roughly 60% of the shock before investor coupons dropped to the stress floor.
Benchmarks (36-mo ROI on same capital)
60 monthsIllustrative — calculated on your simulated capital of AED 2,500,000. Elaris figures reflect blended-margin distribution to the investor pool; market benchmarks use trailing indices.